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Wednesday, 27 July 2016

What can we expect from 2016?-ziad k abdelnour

I guess it is just much easier to forecast good news than bad ones; for good news occurs rarely by chance and is most often the result of long efforts. It is generally known well in advance when a fortunate development will occur.
While bad news (sometimes predictable, such as layoffs, some conflicts or famines) generally occurs by surprise, without notice: It is in fact easier to destroy than to build; to do harm than good; to kill than to give life. And yet, we are far more fascinated by dangers than promises; by threats than hopes. Because bad news is information; while good news is stated in general well in advance. This is though not the case for a tsunami, a terrorist attack, or a disease.

My predictions for the balance of the year?

Continued global violent extremism: Terrorism has intensified sharply over recent years in conflict areas and poses increasing risk to major economies around the world. In 2016, global political and violent extremism will show no signs of abatement, as sectarian and fascist ideologies continue to attract new followers. ISIS will retain control of large swaths of Syria and Iraq, keep on spreading to weak states in its immediate region, and form new cells and gain fresh adherents in G20 countries.
Rise of the machines: The increasing technological sophistication and expanding presence of smart devices, unmanned systems, and robots will keep reshaping businesses and households. In 2016, unmanned systems and robotics will move from niche applications to broader use. The Internet of Things (IoT) will grow, but remain more of a novelty than a necessity. Governments will scramble to keep up with regulating new technologies.
Evolving artificial intelligence (AI): Advancements in AI are expanding opportunities for research and development, as well as business use cases, but are raising serious questions about the future of labor and even of humanity itself. In 2016, several major companies will continue to develop in-house R&D capabilities for deep learning by machines. The most technologically advanced countries will increase investment in AI, supported by private investments and public-private sector partnerships.

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Wednesday, 6 July 2016

Where are the big bucks to be made in the future ? – Look where the world is headed first

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they got bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 year – and most people don’t see it coming.
Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore ‘s law.
So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years.
It will now happen with artificial intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years…
Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers are already having difficulty finding jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses.
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.
In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous and electric cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public.
Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.
You don’t want to own a car anymore.
You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.
You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving.
Our kids will never get a driver’s license and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that.
We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.

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