Our 2018 Predictions for New York City Real Estate

With 2018 in full swing, experts in real estate are already making their predictions on how this year is going to pan out. Will rents continue to rise? Will affordable homes be as hard to find as they were in recent years? How will the industry be affected by the changes in transportation?

Here are some New York real estate predictions we see looming up ahead:

The L-Train and NYC Ferry

According to Grant Long, StreetEasy’s senior economist, sales within the surrounding area may see decreases as buyers—especially in the Brooklyn area because of the L-Train’s scheduled shutdown in 2019. However, because the NYC Service is set to expand this 2018, it could mean new sales and development opportunities in Manhattan and the Bronx.

The 2019 L-train shutdown means that anyone signing a 12-month lease after May will need a new commuting plan that doesn’t rely on riding through the Canarsie Tunnel to the 14th Street.

Jason Saft, a broker with Compass, had this to say about the L-train shutdown: “Smart developers will realize instead of paying concessions and renovating to compete, they will begin to capitalize on the L train shutdown and the need for instant gratification (in the form of living near your office) and convert rental buildings to condominiums.”

Attractively-Priced Luxury

Principal and VP of TF Cornerstone, Zoe Elghanayan, predicts that more suburbanites will make their way to areas like Downtown Brooklyn and the far West Side where heavily amenitized luxury developments that will be priced attractively.

StreetEasy’s Grant Long also talks about how 2017 saw the supply of luxury condos surpass buyer demand, making luxury living in 2018 even more accessible to the “normal-rich” New Yorkers who can now afford these luxury condos that are now being offered at discounted prices. This includes discounted rents of high-end luxury rentals.

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The Drag Race of Digital Progress… Are You Belted In? - With Ziad K. Abdelnour

Published on Apr 24, 2017

Financial Policy Council – April 7, 2017
The Drag Race of Digital Progress… Are You Belted In? / With Ziad K. Abdelnour
Sponsor: Entrepreneur Award Recipient: Lenny Valdberg, CEO of Vigo
Panelists: Jason Cherubini, Vijay Lakshman, Joe Nagy, Matt Nagy, Richard Switzer
Moderator: Ziad K. Abdelnour

The mission of the Financial Policy Council Inc. (FPC), a research think tank and educational institution, is to formulate and promote sound public policy based on the principles of free enterprise and wealth creation as envisioned by the ideals of the American Founding Fathers.

Our goal is to ensure that America, the land of opportunity where freedom and prosperity have flourished, is not derailed by poorly formulated and reactive economic, fiscal and tax policy. In addition, our goal is to retain and reclaim America's leading role in the global economic community.
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GOING TO WAR AGAINST NORTH KOREA – POSSIBILITY, OUTCOME AND RESULT

To make a long story short, I strongly believe that any war between the United States and North Korea would result in the collapse of North Korea’s government and a massive flood of refugees into China and South Korea. This is likely the reason (along with North Korea’s nuclear weapons) why the US has not toppled the North Korean government yet.

In fact, it’s very likely that behind the scenes both South Korea and China have been sending North Korea subtle signals that regime change is not a desired option. This would explain why the North Korean government hasn’t collapsed considering that it doesn’t and hasn’t been meeting the needs of its people.

Who would win such war?

It all depends on what you mean by “winning”, the circumstances in which the conflict begins, and whether North Korea uses nukes/WMDs.  If we ever engaged North Korea, I don’t see the U.S. using nukes because our conventional weapons are effective enough.

First, discussing the circumstances, if North Korea attacked the South, it would take longer than if the South/U.S. attacked North Korea.  The reason is that you would have to stop their offensive before moving back north, account for casualties/battle damage, etc.  If the South/U.S. attacked the North, we would be able to neutralize a lot of their military power right off the bat, which would make things go much more quickly.

If intelligence allows for forces to mobilize early before the conflict begins, it would be faster than if they attacked by surprise and we had to spin up logistics.
If North Korea used nukes or WMDs, it would significantly complicate things both militarily and politically.  It could be slower due to significant damage to our forces, or it could be much faster due to the rest of the world coming together to “take care of” North Korea.

One important factor… drones. Drones can indeed make their carefully dug in positions very vulnerable, and judging by how they are building up their military, that’s a big problem for them.  I think we would also easily maintain air superiority.  Given that it’s a small, extremely mountainous country, it would seem to be relatively easy to use drones and air strikes to completely disrupt their supply lines.  There simply aren’t that many places where rail lines or significant roads can run, especially across the river.  And we have become very good at using drones, helicopters and so forth to spot units moving and take them out from a distance.

I think there is a not insignificant possibility of North Korean collapse once the war goes on for any length of time.  They may have many men under arms, but they cannot feed them in peacetime, much less in war.  If they can’t accomplish a blitzkrieg and get at South Korea’s food supplies they will quickly run out of food.  They also have very limited supplies of other things because they have been at famine levels for years.  Outside of a few zones where they cooperate with the South (and maybe China) their industrial base is small and aged.  They have few natural resources and even now have less ability to exploit them at the level that a modern industrial nation can.


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Brace Yourselves Folks … It’s Going To Get Real Ugly

These are the most dangerous markets I have ever witnessed in my entire life, and I’ve been investing for over 25 years.
Global central bank balance sheets are up from $6 trillion in 2007 to $21 trillion today and they are still being expanded at the pace of $200 billion each and every month.
What’s happening is that the robo-traders, the algorithms, the frontrunners on Wall Street and around the world are just gaming the system, looking for the next increase in central bank credit to take their collateral to the ECB or to the Bank of Japan or to the Fed and buy more stocks and bonds.
That’s the game we’re playing today folks.
Even a hint that it might someday end sends the entire investment community scampering for the door; and that door is very, very narrow and can only fit a few people through it.
I am afraid when that bubble bursts, it will wipe out every asset — everything will collapse together — because everything is geared off of that so-called ‘risk free’ rate of return.
If your risk free rate of return has been warped down to 0% for 96 months, then everything — and I mean diamonds, sports cars, mutual funds, municipal bonds, fixed income, REITs, collateralized loan obligations, stocks, bonds, everything, even commodities — will collapse in tandem along with the bond bubble burst.

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