Events around the world have an impact on Financial Policy, Investment Strategy

Events around the world have an impact on financial policy, investment strategy, trade and commerce, and each of these has an impact on the others. It is time to do another review of global events and their financial impact. This article contains both analysis and my own editorial opinion. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions of whoever publishes it.

One issue that has attracted a great deal of interest in news reports is the issue of internal and external security threats to Europe. Much of this has to do with the mass immigration of refugees from the tumult in the Middle East, and Islamist Jihadist extremists in their midst. However, in my opinion, the greatest threat at present is the deepening fragmentation within Europe of public opinion camps – and policymaking camps – over policies and policy-making of the European Union.

For More: http://financialpolicycouncil.org/blog/financial-impacts-of-foreign-events

Oil Geopolitics and Iran

The baseline is for prices to return to about $70 for a barrel of Brent Crude in 2016. Additional supply from Iran would knock roughly $5/barrel off expectations – or less than one quarter of a standard deviation. Said another way, additional Iranian output could move prices lower, but many other factors, such as changes in global GDP or the return of Libyan oil, could prove more meaningful over the next year. What’s more, recent trading suggests the market has already priced in much of this risk.

Over the longer term, I believe an increase in Iranian output could be for sure significant. With investment and time, Iran could meet a greater share of global demand for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). It also could ship natural gas to Europe via pipeline, challenging Russia’s dominance.

For More: http://ziadabdelnourauthor.com/oil-geopolitics-and-iran/

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How Greece's second bailout will affect the rest of the world

Greece will receive $171.9 billion from the European Union (EU), $17 billion from the International Monetary Fund and the rest from the European Central Bank.

In addition, Greece will exchange about $264 billion of its debt held by private creditors with new bonds with 53.5 percent less value.

After the penal interest Greece has paid on these bonds already, we still see an insolvent country paying bondholders 50pc of face value when they should be getting nothing.

So Greece gets €100bn written off, but borrows €130bn in order to achieve this, so it is still borrowing more making its overall debt not better but worse in absolute terms.

For More: http://live.washingtonpost.com/greece-bailout-120222.html

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